Disclaimer: The list is extracted from the best seller from Rolf Dobelli’s “The Art of Thinking Clearly.”
The list is split into four parts for better readability.
PART 2 | 26 to 50
26. Scarcity error: When we don’t have a choice, we suddenly find things more appealing.
27. Base-rate neglect: We ignore the basic distribution levels for a particular outcome. Overlaps with confirmation bias. It is also made worse by survivorship bias.
28. Gambler’s fallacy: We tend to mix independent and dependent occurrences. Like when we think that if the ball has landed on black 12 times, it must soon be red.
29. Anchors: When we make a guess, we start with something we know for sure and work our way up from there.
30. Induction: the tendency to derive universal truths from single (usually historical) observations.
31. Loss aversion: the fear of losing something motivates people more than the prospect of gaining something of equal value.
32. Social loafing: Individual performance suffers when people work together.
33. Exponential growth: We lack an intuitive understanding of exponential expansion (vs. Linear growth).
34. Winner’s curse: the winner of an auction often becomes the loser because they pay an excess price.
35. Fundamental attribution error: the inclination to exaggerate an individual’s effect while underestimating other influences.
36. False causality: When we confuse correlation with causation.
37. Halo effect: when a single component fascinates us to the point where we lose sight of the bigger picture or fail to evaluate other factors objectively.
38. Alternative paths: We fail to examine all possible outcomes, underestimating the danger.
39. Forecast illusion: Humans tend to believe projections despite their poor accuracy and high risk of being wrong.
40. Conjunction fallacy (also known as the Linda problem): when specific conditions are thought to be more likely than a single generic one. Example: Linda is a 31-year-old single woman who is assertive and intelligent. She was a philosophy major. She was interested in discrimination and social justice issues as a student, and she also took part in anti-nuclear protests.
41. Framing: Humans react to identical problems differently depending on how they are presented.
42. Action bias: Even if we have made matters worse by acting too quickly or too often, we feel obligated to act, especially in unfamiliar or insecure conditions.
43. Omission bias: When both action and inaction have adverse effects, we prefer inaction.
44. Self-serving bias: We credit ourselves for our successes and other factors for our failures.
45. Hedonic treadmill: We adjust to new situations and cannot forecast our own emotions in response to them accurately.
46. Self-selection bias: By selecting our sample incorrectly, we can alter the result of a situation.
47. Association bias: We make erroneous links between unrelated events.
48. Beginner’s luck: We build a fictitious link between early, previous successful results.
49. Cognitive dissonance: We reinterpret events to keep things consistent because of contradictions in our views, beliefs, or attitudes.
50. Hyperbolic discounting: We prefer quick gratification over delayed gratification, even if the immediate gratification is minor.
Links to the other sections of the Cognitive Biases list
